Terry's Weather School

TSwails.com is pleased to announce WEATHER SCHOOL, MODEL ANALYSIS 101. It's a half day weather seminar devoted to mastering the skill of forecasting through the use of weather models. Designed for the novice, there is no physics or math, just a step-by-step hands-on approach to forecasting. A love of weather and a desire to learn is all that's required. The event will be held at the De Soto House Hotel ballroom in Galena, Illinois. The course instructors will be veteran meteorologists Terry Swails and Nick Stewart. A full course outline is included below. Following the event, everyone is invited to a cocktail party held at Terry's 5 star AIRBNB, the Little White Church, minutes north of Galena. And just for registering, one lucky attendee will earn a stay for 2 that night at the AIRBNB.

YOUR INSTRUCTORS

TERRY SWAILS

Terry had a 46-year career as a broadcast meteorologist, is the author of 4 weather related books, is a forensic meteorologist, and an active storm chaser. He has 50 years of forecast experience. Terry is also the CEO of TSwails.com, a Midwest focused weather site entering its 14th year of existence.

NICK STEWART

Nick is currently a U.S. space flight meteorologist assisting in launches at the Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Nicks work, providing upper level wind support and improved weather instrumentation, has helped send 32 astronauts/cosmonauts into space. Nick also has extensive broadcast experience, and remains an avid storm chaser.

Combined, Nick and Terry have won numerous awards for their work in the field of meteorology, including 12 Emmys. They worked as a team to win the Iowa Broadcast Association's award for weather coverage.

WHEN AND WHERE:

The event will be held at the historic De Soto Hotel ballroom in downtown Galena, Illinois (the second-largest tourist destination in all of Illinois). It takes place April 25th, from 1 until 5. Bring your laptop or I-pad. Snacks and beverages will be served. The cost is $99, which will be applied to the operational costs of TSwails.com. There is also the option of 2 seats for $170. For those 18 and under, a student discount of $79 is available. Inquire about large group rates. Seating is limited and will be issued on a first come, first serve basis. Due to the space issue no refunds will be accepted.

Following the seminar, eveyone is invited to a mixer held at Terry's 5 star AIRBNB, the Little White Church of Galena. An added incentive will be a chance to win a free night's stay (for two) following the event at the AIRBNB. The names of all "attendees" will be entered in a raffle with the winner announced ahead of the seminar. We look forward to seeing you, and rest assured you will come away with a blizzard of knowledge and the fact you can call yourself a real weatherperson! The class synopsis is laid out below along with an email to register.

WEATHER SCHOOL MODEL ANALYSIS 101

Forecasting with Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Level: Advanced Enthusiast

• Basic meteorology (fronts, pressure systems, jet stream)

• To Develop comfort reading and understanding weather maps

• No programming background, math, or physics required

Course Description

This course provides a practical, forecast-oriented understanding of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Students will learn how weather models work, how to interpret deterministic and ensemble guidance, recognize common model biases, and combine model data into confident short- and medium-range forecasts.

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, students will be able to:

• Explain how numerical weather models are constructed and run

• Interpret global and regional model output correctly

• Diagnose model biases by region and season

• Use ensembles to assess forecast uncertainty

• Create coherent short- and medium-range forecasts using multiple models

• Communicate forecast confidence and uncertainty clearly

Primary Tools & Resources

• Models: GFS, ECMWF, GEM, NAM, HRRR

• Ensembles: GEFS, EPS

• Web Platforms:

  • NOAA Model Graphics

  • Tropical Tidbits

  • Pivotal Weather

  • College of DuPage Forecasting Lab

• Supplemental: NWS forecast discussions, SPC outlooks

Course Structure

1 – How Weather Models Actually Work

Topics

• What (NWP) Numerical Weather Prediction is (and isn’t)

• Grid spacing, time steps, parameterizations

• Why models fail in predictable ways

2 – Global Models

Topics

• GFS vs ECMWF vs GEM

• Update cycles and run-to-run noise

• Long-range reliability limits

3 – Mesoscale & Convective Models

Topics

• 3K NAM, HRRR, NBMv5

• Convection-allowing models (CAMs)

• Convective busts through capping

  
  

4 – Atmospheric Layers & Dynamics

Topics

• 850, 700, 500, 300 mb patterns

• Jet streaks, trough tilt, height falls

• Thermal advection & thickness

5 – Ensemble Forecasting Fundamentals

Topics

• Why ensembles exist

• Spread vs mean vs clusters

• Control vs perturbations

6 – Biases, Climatology & Pattern Recognition

Topics

• Known model biases by season

• Progressive vs amplified flow

• Pattern memory & analog thinking

7 – Winter Weather Forecasting

Topics

• Snow vs sleet vs freezing rain

• Thermal profiles and boundary layers

• Snowfall algorithms and pitfalls

8 – Severe Weather & Convective Signals

Topics

• CAPE, shear, helicity

• CAM output interpretation

• Why storms rarely happen “where the bullseye is”

9 – Medium-Range & Pattern Forecasting

Topics

• Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, MJO)

• Ensemble trends vs individual runs

• Pattern change detection

• Meteograms

10 – Decision Making

Topics

• Weighing models appropriately

• When to ignore the “best” model

• Forecast confidence

POST SEMINAR COCKTAIL PARTY

WEATHER SCHOOL, NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTING 101

The post seminar cocktail party will be held at Terry's AIRBNB, the Little White Church, minutes from Galena. It's an AIRBNB guest favorite with 5-star reviews. Terry, Carolyn, and Nick will be there as your hosts. Cocktails and hors d'oeuvres will be served along with plenty of weather talk. The address is 6603 W. Council Hill Road. Scales Mound, Illinois 61025.  See the inside below. https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/

MAKE YOUR RESERVATIONS

For any questions about group rates, or ordering via email, please call or send a text to Carolyn at 563-676-3320.