The latest models are coming in hot for snow over much of my area tonight and early Monday. Behind an Arctic front most of my area will set in the right rear entrance region of the jet which will enhance the lift necessary to produce snow. Combined with decent frontogenetical forcing in the dendritic zone the ingredients are there for a healthy swath of snow up to 6 inches.
I am very surprised that there are no advisories in effect, especially since the snow begins later this evening. In fact, this looks to be a high end advisory and could be close to warning criteria. I expect those to be issued soon but unofficially, consider them out here on TSwails.
Here are the latest snow snowfall forecasts from the models. We are getting good consistency and there is high confidence in 3-6" totals over the majority of my area. Only the far north (HWY 18 north) and far south (HWY 34 south) will escape with lighter totals on the order of 1-2".
The 12K NAM
The 3k NAM
The NWS in the Quad Cities and Des Moines have this for snow totals. I think both depictions are a bit low, especially from Maquoketa and the Quad Cities west where I could see adding another 1-2" between I-80 and HWY 20.
The timing is shown this way from the NWS in the Quad Cities.
The morning commute around my area will be slow Monday morning. Plan on some extra time. Once the snow ends the cold kicks in and there is a very good chance record lows will be established Tuesday morning, especially in areas with snow cover. Where snow depth are greater than 2", sub-zero lows are possible. More later this afternoon. Hopefully by then we will have some official advisories in effect. Roll weather...TS
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