Snow is beginning to break out around the central Midwest as lift from a strong Arctic front and the right exit region of the jet combine to produce meaningful forcing. By morning a nice swath of snow will lay out from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois.
You can see behind the front temperatures in North Dakota and Minnesota are already in the single digits.
Wind chills have dipped as low as 10 below and could reach minus 20 in some parts of those states later tonight.
This is the cold air that will surge into the region Monday. It will end the snow in eastern Iowa in the morning and over NW Illinois by early afternoon. By the 2-6" of fresh snow will have fallen in most of my area. Only the far north (north of HWY 18) will get away with lighter totals of an inch or less.
I do have some fresh snow forecasts to send out. First this is the 18Z GFS
Just in the 3K NAM
As well as the 12K NAM
Amounts are up a bit and the big take-away is that some parts of NC Illinois could reach the 8" mark. Many spots in my area aside from the far north and south have a good shot at 4-6" totals.
Winds are going to increase and temperatures fall after midnight, and that means some blowing and drifting snow will become a factor in the open country. The morning commute will be impacted so plan on slick roads and extra time to reach your destination.
It also looks like the chances for record lows Tuesday morning near zero are getting better and better. It's the old triple play of winter, wind, cold, and snow. Welcome to the winter of 2019-20. Roll weather and white gold...TS
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