© 2019 Terry Swails
Nov 6

UPDATE ON TONIGHT'S SNOW UP NORTH...

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The data that's come in since my last post shows the hi-res models such as the HRRR and 3k NAM now coming into good agreement with the operational run of the EURO. That gives me high confidence that the accumulating snows late tonight and Wednesday morning will be north of HWY 20. It will be a nice snow up in NE Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin where a solid 2-4 inches looks good with a few local spots up to 5. Decorah is one of those places that keeps consistently coming in around 5 inches. You go guys! Here are that latest 18z models.

 

The EURO

Here's the HRRR

This is the previous run of the HRRR. Notice it cut out the light accumulations it was showing south of HWY 20. So much for that!

 

 

The 3K NAM did a similar slice and dice down south and now shows this.

 

 

For the time being the atmosphere up north is still saturating but should get there soon and snow will increase rapidly in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa after midnight. The current radar has this for snow returns in that area.

 

 

I hate missing out on snow by an hour or two but as the saying goes, life's a B_T_H and then you die. (Just kidding), I've been listening to Christmas music for 3 hours and it's made me feisty. That crazy holiday spirit you know!

 

By the way, look at this. It's the odds of below normal temperatures November 11-13th.

 

Much of the Midwest has a 100 percent chance. More on that and some big time cold in my next post. Roll weather...TS

 

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  • Snow is wrapping up around eastern Iowa but still falling in some sections of Wisconsin and Illinois. The snow band was relatively narrow but it did cut through the heart of my area. As much as 6 inches fell in the heaviest band which amazingly was centered on Cedar Rapids and Marion for the third time this season (that's where I live, that never happens)! The 5 inches from this storm with the 8 from the previous 2 brings my total for the winter to 13 inches. The average for the entire winter is just 32 inches. We are off to a great start here considering winter doesn't officially begin for more than 5 weeks! As of 10:00 am Monday morning this is what the Iowa Mesonet is showing for snow totals. Here's a regional perspective. Again these are preliminary reports and some places may have had more. As you can see the last of the snow is now crossing the Mississippi in my eastern counties where it will end early this afternoon. Skies are rapidly clearing to the west and I can now see blue skies and sunshine out my window here in Cedar Rapids. On the satellite you can view the clearing line from near Green Bay to Dubuque and back to Cedar Rapids. With the snow out of the way the focus turns to record cold. With winds diminishing tonight and fresh snow on the ground for many, lows could approach or even go a bit below zero in spots. At this hour readings are only in the single digits in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. Wind chills are sub-zero and locally as cold as 15 below in the Dakota's By tomorrow morning lows are projected to look like this on the 3k NAM. Good enough for records in my area. The wind chills could reach 10 below. Tuesday's highs may not reach 20 which would again challenge record cold highs. Here are a list of some attainable records for cities in my local area that I have data for. Record Lows for November 11... Lows for the calendar day will likely occur just before midnight tonight and will be close to these readings. Moline.........12 in 1950 Cedar Rapids...4 in 1986 Dubuque........6 in 1986 Burlington.....12 in 1986 Record Cold Highs for November 11... Moline.........27 in 1986 Cedar Rapids...23 in 1986 Dubuque........22 in 1986 Burlington.....27 in 1995 Record Lows for November 12... Moline......... 8 in 1986 Cedar Rapids....5 in 1986 Dubuque.........6 in 1986 Burlington......9 in 1986 Record Cold Highs for November 12... Moline.........20 in 1911 Cedar Rapids...19 in 1940 Dubuque........18 in 1940 Burlington.....25 in 1940 That's where we stand late on a wintry Monday morning. Smile and roll weather...TS PLEASE, ALL IT TAKES IS 3 PENNIES A DAY... That's all it takes from you to help make TSwails one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. We hope that you will consider a voluntary subscription of $12 dollars a year (3 cents per day). That allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. You support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.
  • Snow is beginning to break out around the central Midwest as lift from a strong Arctic front and the right exit region of the jet combine to produce meaningful forcing. By morning a nice swath of snow will lay out from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. You can see behind the front temperatures in North Dakota and Minnesota are already in the single digits. Wind chills have dipped as low as 10 below and could reach minus 20 in some parts of those states later tonight. This is the cold air that will surge into the region Monday. It will end the snow in eastern Iowa in the morning and over NW Illinois by early afternoon. By the 2-6" of fresh snow will have fallen in most of my area. Only the far north (north of HWY 18) will get away with lighter totals of an inch or less. I do have some fresh snow forecasts to send out. First this is the 18Z GFS Just in the 3K NAM As well as the 12K NAM Amounts are up a bit and the big take-away is that some parts of NC Illinois could reach the 8" mark. Many spots in my area aside from the far north and south have a good shot at 4-6" totals. Winds are going to increase and temperatures fall after midnight, and that means some blowing and drifting snow will become a factor in the open country. The morning commute will be impacted so plan on slick roads and extra time to reach your destination. It also looks like the chances for record lows Tuesday morning near zero are getting better and better. It's the old triple play of winter, wind, cold, and snow. Welcome to the winter of 2019-20. Roll weather and white gold...TS PLEASE, IT ONLY TAKES 3 PENNIES PER DAY... That's all it takes from you to help make TSwails one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. We hope that you will consider a voluntary subscription of $12 dollars a year (3 cents per day). That allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. You support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.
  • After some respectable weather today, big changes are on the way for the end of the weekend and early next week with snow and frigid temperatures on the way. There are still significant differences regarding the amount of snow with the U.S. models showing little if any. However, the EURO and Canadian show a much different scenario with 1-4" for much of my area. Let's take a look at the latest model snowfall forecasts and the two different camps. First the U.S. models. The GFS The 12K NAM Now the EURO AND CANADIAN, the snowier solutions. The EURO The CANADIAN So who's correct? Personally I'm leaning heavily on the EURO and CANADIAN output which would mean a good 1-3, perhaps 4 inches of snow for my area Sunday night and Monday morning. Both of these models have been very consistent which can't be said for the GFS. Aside from that the EURO is just a better model and when there's doubt, don't pout, roll with the EURO. That's a TSwails original! Since we still have discrepancies this is not a high confidence forecast yet but I'm hoping we get movement one way or the other later tonight, Sunday morning at the latest. Stand by on that. If we do get snow, and I am banking on it, record cold is quite possible Tuesday morning when lows could get close to zero. The Canadian shows this for lows. Just look at these wind chills it's putting out. 20 below in NC Iowa. Whoa captain! Needless to say there's some big ticket potential for Monday's weather with snow, wind, and bitter early season cold. More to come that is for sure. Roll weather...TS JUST 3 SHINY PENNIES... That's all it takes from you to help make TSwails one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. We hope that you will consider a voluntary subscription of $12 dollars a year (3 cents per day). That allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. You support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.