NOT FIT FOR MAN OR BEAST...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com continues to be a leader in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather pattern the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to stay on top of the swings. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the va

SNOWY PATTERN A TRIGGER FOR COLD TO COME...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com continues to be a leader in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather pattern the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to stay on top of the swings. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the va

STRONG STORM FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

CONSIDER THE SOURCE...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

STEVE'S "WILD" WORLD OF WEATHER...

When I'm wondering about weather folklore and historical events this is the man I go to. With more than 50 years of statistical and observational research, he's the dude! When it comes to lunar cycles, woolly bear caterpillars, insects, bugs, and animals, he tracks them, records them, and establishes ties to weather patterns. He's a knowledgeable and interesting man. His name is Steve Gottschalk by way of Lowden, Iowa. I'm grateful to him for lending his unique perspective to the site. Steve's "wild" world of weather can be found every week right here on TSwails.com. Take it away Steve! THE BLIZZARD OF DEC. 1-3, 1856 A severe blizzard swept across Iowa and the surrounding states on Dec. 1-3,

HUMBLE PIE DOESN'T TASTE GOOD...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

WICKED WIND OF THE WEST...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

KIND OF LIKE EATING THE NECK OF THE TURKEY...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES, EXTREME WINDS ON THE WAY...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

A STORM WITH ALL THE FIXIN'S...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

STRONG PRE-THANKSGIVING WINTER STORM...

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

WINTER STORM WATCHES UP....

PLEASE CONSIDER THE VALUE...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard

THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING...

Looking for a special Christmas gift for that hard to buy for person? Maybe you just want to treat yourself for being on the nice list! Well, here's an idea that can "give" any weather enthusiast a lifetime of pleasure. It's called WEATHER SCHOOL. What a person sees and learns here will open up the world of forecasting for years of enjoyment to come. Consider giving the gift of weather. Better hurry, only 20 seats left. You can get all the details below. TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the Midwest along with his team of expert meteorologists. That’s right… You want

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...

Meteorology is all about trends. Models are constantly updating and giving us more data to look at. We can't just take one model at it's face value, we have to examine the trends by taking in several runs of the models. So the latest trend has been taking next week's storm north and west. This latest trend could still change. The track may shift more to the northwest or possibly back to the southeast (it likely wouldn't shift too far SE). The reason why has to do with the location of this storm *right now.* The energy associated with this system is still out in the Pacific Ocean. This is important because the models take data from weather balloons that are launched on the mainland U.S. The b

NEXT WEEKS SNOW SYSTEM KEEPS MOVING NORTH...

PLEASE CONSIDER WHAT YOU'RE GETTING...TSwails.com has been far ahead of the competition in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to do that. This is now my job and that's why I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site ev

A WINTER TO REMEMBER...

The developing weather pattern for December, (the first month of meteorological winter) continues to be a fascinating challenge to unravel. The U.S. based GFS and the EURO are at odds with their respective MJO forecasts, the GFS going to cold phases while the EURO goes full bore into warm ones. The EURO is usually my bread and butter but as I've mentioned here recently that model has not handled cold in the pattern recently as well as the GEFS. For that reason I've been leaning more on the GEFS with it's consistent depiction of the MJO and the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) in cold phases. In an interesting development today (and this could swing back the other way) the EURO EPS went from

NEW NUMBERS ON NEXT WEEKS SNOW MAKER...

The morning cycle of the models are in and there is general agreement on a disturbance next Tuesday bringing snow to some part of the Midwest. The various solutions are close but the differences in track that exist are important ones for my area. Let's take a look at the GFS track. It's a little less amplified and further south with the surface low. Now look at the track of the EURO. It's about 125 miles further northwest. That's not much but in this case it is significant for my area as it pushes the snow band about that far northwest as well. Here's the snowfall forecasts associated with the two models. I also threw in the Canadian for good measure. The GFS: The EURO: The CANADIAN: The mor

KEEPING THE TRAIN ON THE TRACKS...

Ladies and gentlemen, the last few days have been nothing but madness and pure chaos on the weather models. Big changes from run to run and model to model. No discrimination, just wayward solutions across the board. To give you an idea of how bad it's been, these are the last 4 runs of GFS snowfall forecasts. These came out within 6 hours of one another. The 0z GFS: The 6Z GFS The 12z GFS The 18z GFS. In essence, my area went from feast to famine in a hurry. Easy come easy go... Particularly amazing was the 6Z GFS last night painting 35 inches of snow in SC Minnesota...12 hours later the 18Z run less than an inch! The deterministic models are having monumental struggles defining and handling

PIECES OF THE PUZZLE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER...

I'm starting to see some consistency in a storm that could bring some travel issues to parts of the central Midwest the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. The model variance has been unusually high the past few days leading to low confidence. At least today, both the GFS and EURO are picking up on a singular piece of energy and are fairly close in the development and track of a surface low through Missouri and SC Illinois. The EURO shows this at the surface. The GFS has this...it's a good 6 hours faster, slightly weaker, but similarly placed. Both models do show some snow northwest of the track. Being 5 days away fluctuations in track and intensity can be expected so the placement of the snow band

CLASSIC GFS LOOK FOR COLD AND STORMY...

Don't know how it will turn out but the GFS and its ensembles are trying to tell us something about another shot of cold air to start December. If you saw last nights post, I focused on the mixed messages regarding this trend in the available teleconnections. You can read the full post HERE but the conclusion I came to was this: When you see discrepancies in models like this (no mojo on the MJO) you know the pattern is in flux and it's a good idea to be cautious in the long term. I still think the EPO is going to drive the pattern this winter so as long as that is neutral to positive, I don't see the harsh cold getting back into the pattern for any extended period of time until after Thanksg

© 2020 Terry Swails