© 2019 Terry Swails

ENOUGH TO TRACK A CAT...

February 8, 2017

 

The weather focus today will be the cold that encompasses all the Midwest and the snow that falls in a narrow corridor from southern Iowa into central Illinois.

 

Let's start with the snow. In a nutshell, this is a clipper type system without a surface reflection. Energy riding a strong baroclinic (thermal) boundary southeast will squeeze out the available moisture that generates the snow band. For the areas that are lucky enough to see the snow, accumulations will be light, generally 1-2", perhaps 3 in a few spots. Some locally higher amounts are possible in SE Nebraska and SW Iowa.

 

As of Tuesday night these are the latest snowfall forecasts. First the GFS.

Now the NAM.

The high res 4k NAM/WRF 

They all seem to be in pretty good agreement. Again, the event is short and sweet...but it is snow for areas that haven't seen much of it this winter. 

 

Now to the cold which is significant considering the 50s much of my area saw Monday. Here's the days highs.

Not to be outdone, these are the wind chills. Not pretty.

Just when you think its winter again, the tide turns. Look what happens on Friday. A strong return flow of southerly winds kicks in and up go the temperatures.

 The EURO has 50s well into my area Friday afternoon. 

 The GFS is a bit cooler but still very much on the mild side.

The bottom line the next two days is that if you don't like the weather just wait a day or two, it's gonna change!

 

For me, I had hoped we might scrape out an inch of snow from this scrawny clipper but it looks like I will probably get just enough to track a cat or a stray dog. The streak of days without an inch of snow falling in Cedar Rapids most likely goes to 52 days. Who's counting? Roll weather...TS

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