© 2019 Terry Swails

DON'T LOOK NOW, WINTER IS BACK....

March 10, 2017

 

Don't look now but winter is is set to make a comeback across the Midwest. It may be just a swan song but while she's back, you'll get all the amenities she's known for. 

 

The transition begins with cold air. It's on the move and as of Thursday evening at 8:00pm temperatures were already in the single digits in North Dakota and Minnesota headed for sub-zero levels.

Even more impressive are the wind chills. They are projected to reach more than 30 below Friday and are well on the way already dipping to -23. 

These are the wind chills that the EURO shows on Friday.

Here's a 10 day meteogram for Cedar Rapids and you can see through next Thursday highs do not get out of the 30s. Most of those days are 27-34 degrees. That the longest stretch of such cold since January. You can also see at the bottom right the model paints out 6" of snow.

The EURO is actually a bit cooler. 25 for a high next Tuesday with a low of 6 Wednesday morning.

 

A couple more 10 day meteograms for Minneapolis and Chicago.

The 5-day temperature departures for March 11-16th show the cold dominating the period all the way from the Rockies east.

In the pattern there are 2 storm systems that will bring snow to the Midwest. The first does not impact my area as it slides just to the west. The fast moving moisture starved clipper does drop 1-3 inches in a narrow band close to its track.

After this the focus turns to the digging wave that crosses the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. At least for my area this system has the best snow producing potential of any system here since December. I suppose I just jinxed myself but that's the way it looks tonight just 3 days away.

 

Here's the 500mb jet stream flow showing a strong short wave wrapping up over the central Midwest.

There's a nice closed low at 850mb (5,000 ft. up) that you really like to see in a snow producer. That's encouraging.

There's also a decent surface reflection that you see crossing Missouri early Monday. Even a healthy pressure gradient that should kick up a good northeast wind. Temperatures aloft are -6 to -12 meaning cold air won't be an issue and snow ratios should be high by March standards.

In the end the GFS comes up with snow totals that look like this.

For those of you who have missed out on the gold this year, especially those of you who make money on it, here's hoping the GFS is dialed in. Stay tuned and roll weather...TS 

 

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