A GO FOR SNOW...YOU BETCHA!

March 11, 2017

Nothing shocking about the morning model runs so it's still a go for snow Sunday night and Monday. Low pressure just off the Pacific Northwest is set to dig into the Midwest Sunday. It will draw moisture over-top of a very tight thermal boundary and develop a long duration snow of at least 24 hours.

The track should see the low pressure center travel from WC Iowa to the SE tip of the state Sunday night.

There's a brief closed 700mb low in SC Iowa and a decent 850 circulation that you would expect to see in a decent snow producer. 

Considering the amount of cold air north of the center I expect a healthy band of snow (4 to perhaps 8") to fall over SW Minnesota and the NE half of Iowa into parts of S. Wisconsin and N. Illinois. There is also some nice lake enhancement from Chicago, and Milwaukee all the way to Sturgeon Bay thanks to a nice NE fetch off lake Michigan. Here's what the GFS is indicating for total snowfall.

I've included a snow plume for Cedar Rapids based on the GFS ensemble. The mean of all the members shows about 4.5" at a 10:1 ratio. Due to the higher snow ratios (closer to 15:1) the total would end up closer to 6" if the model verifies.

 

The NAM looks like this.

The hi-res 4k Nam has this for totals.

Last but not least the EURO shows this. I'm providing you with a regional perspective and a tighter view of my local area.

Just for kicks here is a product generated by the NWS in Des Moines that shows the least, likely, and most potential for several cities in Iowa.

Finally, here are the latest odd of at least an inch of snow. They have increased a bit over my region.

All things considered, this system has the potential of being the largest snow producer of the winter for much of my area. Considering our largest storm this year in Cedar Rapids has been just over 3" that's not saying much. Even worse, its been 84 days since 1" of snow fell in a single system (Dec 17th). Man, I can't wait to put that streak to bed. Here's to some white gold! Roll weather...TS

 

 

 

 

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Please reload

ARCHIVED POSTS
Please reload

RECENT POSTS
Please reload

© 2019 Terry Swails