SOGGY TIMES AHEAD?


The high pressure ridge over the eastern U.S. that dominated the winter weather pattern is returning just in time for Monday's official start to spring. With the ridge over the east it argues for a vacillating trough somewhere over the western or central U.S. much of the next 2 weeks. That means the Midwest will be situated where warm and cold air masses clash and our weather should turn active and wet. In other words, we'll be in the battleground.

Here's the 5 day GEFS ensemble mean 500mb flow the next 5 days. The ridge (reddish color) is working its way east towards the Ohio Valley.

In the 5-10 day period (March 24-29th) the ridge below is centered on the northeast and a broad southwest flow bisects the nations Mid-section. This starts to open up the Gulf as a moisture source.

Finally in the 10-15 day period the ridge holds over the northeast as an impressive mean trough digs into the southwest. By now things should be cooking.

With moisture in place in such a jet stream flow, I would expect multiple pieces of energy to eject northeast out of the trough resulting in above normal precipitation for much of the country, perhaps into the first week of April. Severe weather is also likely, especially over the southern Plains. Here's the 16 day precipitation forecast from the GEFS ensembles (51 members).

The EURO (EPS ensembles) out 15 days have a very similar look with total precipitation.

Once the ridge trough couplet gets established "late this week" temperature should also hedge toward the warmer side of the ledger. I have some reservations as to how warm (it may end up closer to normal) but if the GEFS has the right idea it would be pleasant. With that in mind, here's the day 5-10 temperature departures from the GEFS.

Now the GEFS 10-15 day temperature departures.

With the mild wet weather it looks like it won't be long before the old lawn mower is running again. The first few cuts are OK but after 6 months it gets to be old....very old! Roll weather...TS

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