NOT EXACTLY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER...

March 21, 2017

 

Sunday night parts of my local area saw some weather action in the form of thunderstorms that produced vivid lightning and some hail. The elevated storms ran in a narrow band that extended from west of Cedar Rapids along and near HWY 30 to Clinton, Iowa and on into Illinois. Another pocket of storms formed just SW of the Quad Cities and produced large hail around Cambridge and Galesburg, Illinois. 

I watched as the cap broke around 11:30 at night and a tower formed just northwest of my house. It went from nothing to producing lightning in minutes and hail in less than half an hour. Awesome! Less than 2 miles away away hail .88" in diameter hit other parts of Marion, Iowa. The HRRR model did a fantastic job of anticipating the event. Here are some of the storm reports from the NWS in the Quad Cities.

 

I had some nice images sent to me of of ping pong to golf ball size hail in Galesburg, Illinois. Here's one from Tom Tribbett

This next one is from Steve Miller.

Amber McClanahan sent me an image of a wicked bolt of lightning looking north from Trinity Hospital in Bettendorf, Iowa.

Paul Brooks, a fine weather photographer from Muscatine took this sweet shot of a storm south of the Quad Cities. 

Now the focus turns to cooler temperatures and eventually a wet pattern that takes hold Thursday and lasts much of the next 2 weeks. During that period the GFS shows this for total precipitation.

The EURO EPS mean has this for totals.

Several of the systems are what we call cut-off lows. The energy gets cut-off from the westerlies aloft which slows the progression of the storms. The first one to come out late this week looks this way at 500mb (jet stream level).

Below you can see an 84 hour animation of how long the surface low and associated precipitation takes to move from Kansas and Oklahoma to northern Indiana. That's a real grinder and one of the key reasons precipitation could be so substantial and widespread. 

 

 

In the interim before the wet weather arrives, much cooler conditions are set to dive into the Midwest. After highs in many areas Monday in the 60s and 70s, readings Wednesday will be as much as 25 degrees colder. Here's Wednesday's highs on the GFS.Wind chills will make feel about 10 degrees colder as they hover around freezing or a bit below in many spots.

To sum it up, the next few days won't exactly be chamber of commerce weather. The coats and eventually umbrellas will come in handy. Happy spring and roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails