For the first time since last Friday the sun finally poked through the clouds here in Cedar Rapids. A welcome sight after 100 consecutive hours without any direct solar energy. If you did not see the sun in your area don't plan on it any time soon as the next storm is ready to pounce on the central Midwest. Here's the simulated satellite at noon Wednesday. A classic mid-latitude cyclone!
The 500mb jet stream flow shows a well defined closed low....(the storms energy) running northeast into Missouri Thursday.
Moisture is plentiful as you can see in the precipitable water levels forecast by the GFS late Wednesday. Up to an inch of water vapor all the way to I-80 in Iowa and Illinois.
The deep moisture and strong forcing suggest widespread heavy rain, especially north of the low in the deformation band that sets up over my local area. Here's the surface depiction of the storm at 6pm Wednesday, midnight Thursday, and 6am Thursday.
It appears much of my area and the central Midwest will see a good 24 hours of rain. The total rainfall numbers on the GFS show many spots picking up .75" to 1.50" of rain between Wednesday and Friday.
The EURO has this for total rainfall through Friday. Pretty good consistency.
Clouds, rain, and easterly winds are a recipe for cool temperatures anytime of the year. In late March the impacts are especially pronounced, especially with lake enhanced cooling (thanks Lake Michigan)! Highs in the 40s and 50s look widespread Wednesday and Thursday. Here's what the EURO is showing for max temperatures both days.
Once this system parts ways with the Midwest we'll get a break heading into the weekend. Saturday actually looks pretty decent. However, the next disturbance will already be making the bend with a chance of showers returning as early as Sunday. Roll weather....TS