© 2019 Terry Swails

MY DISPOSITION JUST GOT SUNNY...

April 7, 2017

 

 

The past 30 days have been soggy ones over much of the central United States. As you can see below rains of 3-7" have occurred over the central Midwest.

Here's a tighter perspective showing the heaviest totals over my local area in the southeast. Some amounts in SC Iowa and WC Illinois have gone over the 6" mark.

Over that 30 day period 4.08 trillion gallons of water fell over Illinois and 3.19 trillion over Iowa. Who keeps stats like that! Only geeks like me find them.

 

In this graphic from the Midwest Climate Center you can see rainfall over NW Missouri and Kansas are running 300 percent above the mean for the 30 day period. Only NW Minnesota and Wisconsin have come up on the short side.

With the wet period rivers and streams in many places are running at levels that are above normal. In the graphic you can see 463 gauges in the U.S. are nearing or are at minor, moderate, or major flooding levels. Many of those are in the Midwest.

Aside from drier parts of the Upper Midwest, we could use a break in the action to let some of the water run-off or sink in. Typically that's not common for long stretches this time of year.  All across the Midwest monthly rain totals dramatically increase over next 3 months with the return of warm moist air. Here's the monthly rainfall averages in Cedar Rapids. Notice the jump from just over 2" in March to nearly 5" in June.

At least in the short term there should be a couple of dry sunny days for most of the Midwest to enjoy. Temperatures will also be significantly warmer ahead of the next trough which digs into the Plains over the weekend. Here it is at 500mb Sunday.

It produces highs Saturday and Sunday on the EURO that look like this. Nice!

By late Sunday the southerly winds bring increasing moisture to the Midwest. PWAT's (precipitable water values) are expected to rise to 1 inch levels with dew points pushing 60.

Throw in a front late Sunday and you have the next chance for thunderstorms. You can see a few firing out ahead of the front Sunday evening on the EURO.

There is some potential for some severe storms if instability can be maximized. To me it's not looking like much of a tornado threat, at least for my local area as storms quickly grow upscale and linear. Here's what the Storm Prediction Center currently has for a risk area.

The bottom line in this post is that the weekend ahead is looking very good until the storm threat Sunday night. Your disposition should now be sunny. Be sure to kiss your local meteorologist (LOL) and roll weather...TS

 

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