IT'S HOW YOU FINISH...
Some wicked storms rocked parts of my area Saturday night. Aside from 2-3" rains, golf ball sized hail pounded select spots producing localized damage. Here's some rain totals from my area. 2.20" at my place in Marion.
Following the storms skies cleared and Easter Sunday was a beauty over many parts of the central Midwest.
Now attention turns to the new week ahead of us. Things will start out nice on Monday but quickly go downhill after that. There's a saying that goes something like "it's not how you start, it's how you finish". Personally, I don't like the way this week is going to finish.
So we'll start with the good and Monday looks quiet and mild in my neck of the woods with highs back in the 60s and 70s.
After that 2 storms will cross the Midwest. One arrives with a cold front late Tuesday that should breed scattered storms, especially late in the day or night. You can see a broken line advancing across Iowa Tuesday evening in the surface depiction below.
Dew points near 60 are respectable but CAPE values are not impressive. Severe storms don't look to be much of an issue.
The front will slow and eventually stall somewhere in northern Missouri and central Illinois by Wednesday morning. At that point, another piece of energy will create a surface low that drags the boundary back north as a warm front Wednesday evening. That sets up a complicated scenario in my area Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Here's the set-up. Low pressure is traveling across southern Iowa towards evening. A strong warm front gets established near or south of I-80.
Notice the temperature contrast that's created. Near 80 in my southern counties. Low to mid 50s up north.
Now look at dew points. Upper 60s into southeast Iowa.
Near the warm front and triple point where temperatures are warm and moisture levels are high instability will be maximized. That generates CAPE that could reach 2500 j/jg.
Depending on how the day unfolds, all modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes. At this point the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk out for parts of the central Midwest. It just clips my southern counties.
This type of situation will also lead to more heavy rain for some. The GFS has this for rain through Wednesday night.
We'll have a better handle on the position of the synoptic features in coming model runs. Shifts north or south are still possible. Until then, enjoy what should be a pretty decent Monday around much of the area. Roll weather...TS