It's was a windy, wet, raw Saturday around the central Midwest. I was lucky enough to get a short window of dry weather Saturday morning to get the yard mowed. I finished the last couple laps with sprinkles falling but by golly I got 'er done!
Take a look at the temperature contrast Saturday afternoon. Low 40s in southern Iowa to low 80s in southern Missouri.
As a big low wraps up and heads north into Iowa it appears that some of that warm air will get into my area late Sunday/Sunday evening. Here's the surface features on the EURO. A warm front cuts right through my area by late afternoon and extends across northern Illinois.
Look what the EURO shows for highs. 70's up to Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities. Dew points are also forecast to hit 60 or better. That's a huge change from Saturday.
The warmth and moisture will generate instability bringing the threat of strong storms to parts of my area. With the backed flow near the warm front there is even a small tornado risk if the EURO solution verifies. That's a situation that needs to be watched closely as Sunday unfolds.
However, the GFS has another idea and its colder and less concerning. It suppresses the warmth resulting in highs that are nearly 20 degrees colder. Without the instability strong storms are no longer a threat.
Needless to say, there are some big questions that need to be answered with regard to Sunday's weather in my local area. We won't have the answers until mid to late morning at the earliest. Right now I am leaning more towards the cooler solution of the GFS. However, it may be a bit cool and in the end some sort of compromise between the two models may end correct. Hard to say.
Whatever happens, Sunday night the low crosses Iowa and makes its way to SE Wisconsin. It's followed by a strong cold front that brings wind and colder air back to the region Monday. That in turn cuts off the moisture to the system and the threat of significant rain finally comes to an abrupt end.
Before that happens the EURO shows this for total rainfall through Monday.
The GFS has this for rainfall over the same period.
There is also a snowy side to the storm over the upper Midwest, especially from Nebraska, far NW Iowa northeast into parts of Minnesota. The EURO shows this for snow totals.
The GFS shows this for total snowfall. Clearly it's not as bullish.
As you can see Sunday is going to be an interesting day, especially in my area as temperatures warm to some degree in the afternoon. The question is will it get warm enought to spawn scattered thunderstorms that have the potential to be strong in spots? Time will tell. Nothing like spring in the Midwest! Roll weather...TS