IF IT CAN'T SNOW, IT MIGHT AS WELL BE 80....


My philosophy has always been, if it's not cold enough to snow, it might as well be 80 degrees! Now that the snow season is behind me (pathetically bad with just 17" in Cedar Rapids), I'm ready for warm weather. None of this 45-65 degree junk...I want the penetrating warmth of an 80 degree day.

So it is with great disappointment that I continue to see strong signs of a cool weather pattern well into the next 2 weeks. One signal or teleconnection that is coming in nice and fresh is the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Over the next 14 days you can track its progression by following the dotted green lines as they make a pass through phases 1 and 2.

In the phase correlation diagram you can see how phase 1 in May is cold over the central U.S.

Phase 2 is not much different, especially across the central Midwest. Boo!

The operational models are also seeing the blocking that will deliver the cooler than normal period. Here's the average 500mb jet stream flow May 9-14th.

The strong northerly flow continues in the period May 14th-19th.

Here's the associated temperature departures at 5,000 ft for the 2 time frames.

Fortunately this isn't January or much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation would be freezing their tails off. As it is, it still looks like chilly nights and cool days with plenty of highs in the 60s (maybe a couple 50s) through mid-May.

This type of pattern is not conducive to heavy precipitation as the northwest flow prevents significant moisture transport into the Midwest. Thus, 15 day rain totals are likely to be light. That's what the EURO EPS ensemble mean (comprised of over 50 members) is showing.

Leaving you with a positive thought, the coming weekend looks nice. After the wind, rain, and 40s of last weekend, sunshine and seasonal temperatures will dominate this time around. Cheers to that! Roll weather...TS

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