- May 14, 2017

SUMMER IN MAY....

It was a beautiful weekend around the Midwest with temperatures in the 80s and the warmest stretch of weather in months. These temperatures aren't record breaking or unusual, but they are more typical of late June and early July. Here's a look at the temperatures of Sunday afternoon:

The humidity was pretty low all weekend, which kept it feeling comfortable. Check out the dew points of Sunday afternoon:

It is going to get warmer and more humid during the start of the work week. The projected high temperatures and dew points for Monday are below...

Temperatures will be slightly higher than Sunday and dew points are expected to be 10+ degrees higher. You'll feel that! The higher dew point is indicating there will be more moisture in the atmosphere and we can measure that also with precipitable water:

The yellow (in central Iowa) indicates 2 inches, which is a pretty high amount. Around it, 1 to 1.7" values are found, which is certainly enough for showers and thunderstorms to thrive. Here's the projected surface pattern Monday evening on the GFS and Euro:

The GFS is much more bullish but both do show convection breaking out. There will be the potential some storms could be strong. Here's the CAPE (measure of instability):

There is still some uncertainty on where storms develop and how widespread they will be. The SPC has this outlook for Monday:

Where storms do develop, they will be capable of producing hail and strong winds. This will not be the only chance for storms (or strong storms) this week in the Midwest. An active pattern will unfold across the central U.S. and likely lead to multiple days of severe weather over the next several days. Here's the projected precip over the next 7 days on the GFS and Euro: