© 2019 Terry Swails

TAKE THAT CHILL AND SHOVE IT...

May 23, 2017

Hey everybody, before I get into the forecast I wanted to mention I still have a couple seats open for this years storm chase which takes place June 5th-11th. It's a rock bottom price (none better) and it's a fabulous time. If you're in a rut and want to get out of your box this is the experience of a lifetime. If you need some additional details click HERE TO SEE ON THE CHASE 2017 Contact my lovely wife Carolyn at carolynswettstone@yahoo.com to secure you spot. We would love to have you along for the ride!

Now it's time to turn our attention to another round of unusually cool late spring air. The past 7 days the core of this has been centered out west.

Now the mean trough is shifting east where it sets up shop over the Midwest. Take a look at this 500mb flow on Wednesday. You can see the closed upper low centered on Iowa and a reinforcing wave digging into the Pacific Northwest.

As you would expect, Wednesday's temperature departure shows widespread below normal readings over the central U.S.

The 10 day departure from the CFSv2 shows the prolonged nature of the cool conditions over the period May 22 through June 1st.

Beyond June 1st there are signs of a significant warm-up which I will talk more about tomorrow.

 

Getting back to the cool air one of its side effects will be the instability it creates in the afternoon both Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime heating will create a surface layer that is much warmer than the air just 5,000 ft. up. The resulting strong lapse rates will allow a random pattern of showers and thunderstorms to pop during peak heating. These hit and miss "pop corn" type showers have the ability to produce brief heavy rain, some wind gusts of 40-50 and some small hail. About 50% or the region will see them. For the most part the activity should remain below severe limits. Here's a simulated afternoon radar depicting the random nature of the cells throughout the Midwest.

 Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will run 10-15 degrees below normal. This is Tuesday.

 And this is Wednesday.

 

And if it's crisp during the day you know darn well it will get chilly at night, especially Thursday morning as the clouds part and winds ease off. You can see some 30s in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as far south as La Crosse.

In summation I would think it's fair to say the next 48 hours won't be chamber of commerce weather or great corn growing conditions which is now coming up in many fields. However, it's just a bump in the road as we head for the longest days of the year. Meteorological summer starts in just over a week. Yea! Roll weather...TS

 

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