SUMMER RULES FOR NOW....
After a rather sluggish May that featured below normal temperatures, heat and even humidity has found its way to the central Midwest. So far June has produced 5 90 degree days here in Cedar Rapids, well on the way to the yearly average of 11. That's also the most this early in the year since 1977. Here's what June temperatures look like so far.
Based on the pattern we are currently in it appears 2-3 more 90 degree days are possible this week. Below is the 500mb jet stream flow Tuesday morning.
Highs Tuesday look like this on the EURO. The model has been running a few degrees warm but the idea of widespread 90s is on the mark.
Dew points are also well into the 60s making for some nice steamy conditions more typical of July.
The pattern starts to break down with the passage of a cold front Wednesday. As it arrives it should bring at least scattered thunderstorms. The GFS is a bit more bullish on coverage than the EURO showing this for storm coverage Wednesday evening.
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is high so any storms that get going have the potential to produce severe weather. At this time the primary threats are wind and perhaps a bit of hail.
Temperatures will drop a bit behind the front but the most noticeable effect will be less humidity. A stronger front is due into the Midwest over the weekend that could bring another threat for storms and then some major relief Sunday as it generates northwest flow aloft. Check the change out below.
Here's the highs the EURO is depicting Sunday. Quite a change with 70s and much lower humidity.
Until then summertime rules. Stay cool and as always...roll weather. TS