© 2019 Terry Swails

TO STORM OR NOT TO STORM...

June 14, 2017

After a relatively wet spring, meteorological summer (June-August) is off to a warm dry start in many parts of the central Midwest. Here in Cedar Rapids June rainfall stands at just .02" which equates to a 2.00" deficit going into Wednesday. Here and in many other places around my local area this is the driest start ever to the month. Here's the 14 day rain totals centered on Iowa.

A larger view reveals where the rains have fallen over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and far northern Iowa. 

Here are the 30 day anomalies pointing out the very dry conditions that have developed over much of Iowa into Missouri and Illinois. 

 The dryness is beginning to have impacts on crops and pastures over parts of Iowa and Missouri.

You can see how soil moisture has dramatically decreased over the past 90 days.

Short term drought indicators are beginning to pick up on the lack of rain, especially over the northern Plains and the central Midwest.

Over the next several days rain prospects will increase as a series of fronts move through the pattern. The first arrives Wednesday and while thunderstorms are likely, the overall coverage and intensity of storms is still in question. One positive is the fact instability should be high. CAPE values over 3,000 j/kg will see to that.

Complicating factors will be morning storms and debris clouds. How long those linger and precisely where will determine if the instability can be realized. At this point the Storm Prediction Center has broad brushed a large area with a slight risk of severe storms. The primary threat looks to be strong winds.

The GFS shows the broken nature of the thunderstorms Wednesday at 7:00pm.

 

After this disturbance passes Most of Thursday looks dry and a bit less humid. However, thunderstorm chances return by Friday and Saturday night. Between Wednesday's storms and those that follow the GFS shows this for rainfall. Fingers crossed the model verifies in the spots that need the rain. You never know with convection, it can be feast or famine.

That's where things stand for now. Have a nice hump day! Roll weather...TS

 

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