As expected, thunderstorms came to many parts of the Midwest Tuesday. While the rains were scattered some places were fortunate enough to pick up 1-2" totals. Here in Cedar Rapids, we managed .84" at broadcast park, most of it coming down in 1/2 hours time. That .84" was more than the previous 24 days combined. My yard is smiling.
Every place in green on the map below was pushing an inch of rain as of 7pm Tuesday night.
The next big weather maker for the Midwest will be a strong short wave that digs across the upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and evening. Early in the game this looks to be a dynamic system with the potential to produce severe weather, its just a matter of where. The 500mb chart shows the deepening trough and associated upper air energy Saturday evening. An impressive little system.
CAPE (convective available potential energy) is really maximized over southern Iowa late Saturday. On the nose of the instability there is no cap (to suppress storm development) and thunderstorms should initiate in western or central Iowa by evening.
Out ahead of a surface low crossing the state backed flow will lead to significant bulk shear that indicates the potential for supercells and rotating updrafts. There does appear to be some tornado threat that needs to be watched. Here's a sounding from southeast Iowa. We are 3 days ahead of the event but this type of hodograph and sounding is a tip off there's potential on the table. Bulk shear profiles are are sufficient. I'll be curious to see if the trends hold.
What's certain is that after the disturbance passes, much cooler and drier weather will enter the entire Midwest Father's day and last into much of next week. Notice the difference in temperature departures for days 0-5 vs. days 5-10 on the CFSv2.
Here's what the model shows for temperatures the rest of June.
It has this for rainfall the remainder of June. Near normal temperatures and rainfall for my local area. That works for me.
If your making plans for Thursday, plan on more summery weather. The threat of storms is gone but it will be toasty. Under sunny skies highs will hit the upper 80s to low 90s in many areas. I day just like I dreamed about back in early January! No complaining. Roll weather...TS