The latest data is in and as I alluded to in my previous post outflow from last nights storms has become a factor. The boundary for today's convection has been forced further south so the greatest risk of severe weather has also moved in that direction. Here's the morning outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing the enhanced risk all the way down to Keokuk.
The latest run of the NAM NEST has strong storms firing in extreme southeast Iowa and WC Illinois late this afternoon. These are likely to go severe and all modes are possible here although very strong winds appear to be the greatest threat. Further north a few strong storms may get up into my southern counties, especially as far north as I-80.
We'll continue to monitor the situation. A watch is likely at some point in my far southern counties later today. Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon, especially near and south of HWY 34. Roll weather...TS