From a statistical and historical perspective the next 10 days are the hottest of the year. It makes sense considering the suns most direct rays and peak energy is entering the Midwest's atmosphere. So is it possible we could see a 100 degree temperature?
Well, if you buy what the EURO is selling that potential does exist on Monday in the southern parts of my area. Take a look at the highs the model is projecting. Readings near 100 from Muscatine back to Ottumwa and just south of Des Moines.
Even worse, dew points are expected to top 70 over much of the region which would send heat index values well over 100 even in areas that stay in the low to mid 90s.
If a 100 degree high sounds bad to you, take some heart in the GFS which is less bullish on the heat. It shows this for max temperatures. Mainly upper 80s to low 90s...big difference.
Unfortunately, it makes up for the lack of heat on the thermometer with higher moisture levels. It's showing dew points pooling around 80 in EC Iowa and NW Illinois Monday afternoon.
That creates heat index values as high as 106 in Washington, Iowa. (110 in southwest Iowa!)
So riddle me this, in Washington, Iowa's case, is it worse to have an actual high of 101 or a temperature of 91 and a dew point of 80 making it feel like 106? There is no correct answer. Hot is hot and Monday looks to be a burner, especially across the southern half of Iowa, northern Illinois, and much of Missouri. Stay cool my friends and roll weather...TS