HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY...

July 21, 2017

A potent set-up exists for severe weather around my area today with all modes of severe possible. That includes the risk of high winds, some hail, a few tornadoes, and what could be a significant flash flood threat for some. The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in place.

 

A convectively reinforced stationary front extends from central IA southeast through northern IL and IN. A large MCS persists within a zone of warm advection north of this boundary. It appears that storms will eventually redevelop and intensify along and just north of this boundary supported by warm, moist inflow from a destabilizing warm sector. 0-6 km shear profiles around 35-40 kt will support organized storms including supercells and bowing segments. This activity will will likely contribute to a corridor of wind damage in and near the enhanced outlook from IA into extreme southern WI and northern IL. SPC has also introduced a 5% tornado area where low-level hodographs are maxed out along the southwesterly low-level jet.

 

Here's the 5% tornado risk area.

The 30% wind damage risk area.

With regards to flash flooding, the potential has shifted a bit further south into much of my area due to a southward displacement of the stationary boundary due to morning convection. The Weather Prediction Center currently has a moderate risk of excessive rains 2-6" in the red shaded region below.

 The 3k NAM, a high resolution model shows some localized rain totals in EC Iowa of up to 9"+.

 

While I don't put great faith in that solution the air mass we are in with 80+ dew points and a high CAPE gradient is the type of set-up that's necessary to make it happen. I do think excessive rains are a real possibility, especially where training occurs.

 

Needless to say the potential for significant weather in my local area and surrounding regions of the central Midwest is significant. This will be an afternoon and night to pay close attention to weather trends. Roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails