I HATE TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO...BUT I DID!

July 23, 2017

I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. Two weeks ago it became apparent that the ring of fire was setting up and 3 of summers harshest elements (heat, humidity, and thunderstorms) were conspiring to create havoc. What I indicated would happen was an explosion of storms that would eventually produce epic rains, flash flooding, and significant rises on area rivers. Well, take a look at these rainfall totals, all in a 24 hour period. Up to 10" in northeast Iowa!

Here's a sampling from some cities around my local area.

Northeast Iowa and a part of SW Wisconsin were really nailed with 6-10" totals. Parts of Chickasaw, Bremer, and Fayette counties were especially hard hit.

Fredericksburg in SE Chickasaw county reported 10". That's close to 3 months of rain in a single day.

The monsoonal like ring of fire flow looked this way on the water vapor loop Friday night. Tremendous amounts of moisture with 80+ dew points pointing into the rain ravaged areas. 100 degree heat found in the clear sky areas as far north as Des Moines fueling intense convective clusters.

With the ring in place for much of the past 2 weeks 14 day rainfall as I anticipated in early July was excessive. Here's the 14 day rainfall estimates with parts of northeast Iowa picking up nearly 15". Notice the stark contrast between NW and NE Iowa. Amounts going from 0.25" to 15.00". Wow, talk about feast or famine!

Here's a larger perspective.

With the massive rains significant flash flooding and river flooding has or will be taking place. In my area the Mississippi will see moderate to major flooding. Here's the crest forecast in the Quad Cities. The river goes up 9 feet in the next few days before cresting the 25th.

The Rock River is also rapidly rising and a near record crest is expected in Moline the 25th.

On a very positive note, the ring of fire pattern has broken and drier and more comfortable conditions are expected in the coming week. The EURO has this for 10 day rainfall. Well below normal amounts in the hardest hit areas of the past 2 weeks.

Temperatures should also be pretty comfortable with the CFSv2 showing this for a 10 day temperature departure.

 Going forward, I see much better days ahead! Roll weather...TS 

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails