After 3 days with no rain, a big accomplishment for parts of my area, another disturbance is set to bring humidity and storms back to the Midwest. Not really what the doctor ordered for some of the spots below that have seen 10-20" totals the past 30 days.
Along with the rain has come a burst of severe weather that I haven't had to deal with in quite a few years. Just look at the amount of Midwest warnings since the beginning of July. 1,350+ with much of that centered on my local area. Typically the worst of the severe weather season is well behind us by July so that is unusual.
The next area of concern is the short wave you see crossing southern Canada.
It will quickly tap the warmth and humidity that's been suppressed to the south and return it to the central U.S. Just look at the precipitable available water vapor (PWAT's) on Wednesday. Amounts up to 2.75" pooling over central Iowa. Big moisture!
That's an anomaly of nearly 4 standard deviations!
Aside from the obvious heavy rain potential, the water vapor generates high dew points like we saw last week. Here's what the GFS has for this Wednesday.
There's also a surge of warm air with highs around 90 all the way up to I-80 in Iowa.
The warmth and extreme humidity combined will generate heat index values of 95-100 Wednesday in my southern counties. Oh boy, can't wait for that!
The instability is likely to manifest itself in strong Thunderstorms. Tuesday these will occur over the upper Midwest where SPC has this for a risk area.
Wednesday the threat is further south and involves all of my area. This could eventually be upgraded to enhanced in some areas if instability is maximized.
How much rain falls in this round of storms is impossible to predict but it does appear that some parts of my area and the central Midwest could pick up another 1-3". The GFS has this for totals.
Here's a larger perspective.
While things could get a little dicey Wednesday the pattern is progressive and the rain is over by Thursday and the weekend looks comfortable and dry. I'm "cool" with that. Roll weather...TS