AND THAT'S A WRAP FOR THE WORST OF SUMMER...
The past 3 weeks have been steamy and stormy for many of us in the Midwest. Regular episodes of heat and humidity have been followed by multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms and even flooding for some. For those of you looking for a break I think it's in the works. In fact, I think it's a wrap for the worst of summer.
One of the indicators I see trending in favor of a change is the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO. Today the MJO resides in phase 6 and for much of the next 2 weeks its expected to meander around in that category. (Follow the dotted green lines that run out through August 9th)
As you'll note in the phase correlation diagram, 6 is known to produce cool temperatures in both July and August, the period in question.
The CFSv2 is certainly buying what the MJO is selling indicating this for temperature departures day 0-5.
It has this for days 5-10.
And this days 10-15.
The EURO's ensembles agree with its MJO forecast (it doesn't always) showing temperature departures that look like this day 0-5.
And this for days 5-10...still looking cool.
That gets us through August 10th and while it can still get plenty warm the rest of the month, the chances of any significant heat waves diminish significantly. Personally, I think we've seen the worst of this summers heat and humidity.
I also believe at least for the next 6-10 days the pattern looks much drier than it has across the entire Midwest. That's fine where its been wet but not so good for those who have missed the rains. The Climate Prediction Center and I agree on the dryness as they show this for the 6-10 day precipitation outlook.
What's all this mean? Simply put we've got some great summer weather to look forward to and it all starts this weekend. Make your plans outdoors. Roll weather...TS