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The past 3 weeks have been steamy and stormy for many of us in the Midwest. Regular episodes of heat and humidity have been followed by multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms and even flooding for some. For those of you looking for a break I think it's in the works. In fact, I think it's a wrap for the worst of summer.

One of the indicators I see trending in favor of a change is the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO. Today the MJO resides in phase 6 and for much of the next 2 weeks its expected to meander around in that category. (Follow the dotted green lines that run out through August 9th)

As you'll note in the phase correlation diagram, 6 is known to produce cool temperatures in both July and August, the period in question.

The CFSv2 is certainly buying what the MJO is selling indicating this for temperature departures day 0-5.

It has this for days 5-10.

And this days 10-15.

The EURO's ensembles agree with its MJO forecast (it doesn't always) showing temperature departures that look like this day 0-5.