SLIP INTO SOMETHING COMFORTABLE...
All the chatter in the Midwest weather world the past couple weeks has been focused on the comfortable weather conditions we've been enjoying. Once again this morning some spots were down in the upper 40s. (48 in Waterloo and 49 in Davenport). Those longer nights are starting to have an impact as we slowly transition to fall.
Here's a few other reports from the upper Midwest. Some locations in the U.P. of Michigan were down in the lower 40s.
This pleasant temperature pattern is caused by a 500mb jet stream flow that looks like this on the EURO EPS ensemble.
A little disturbance in the flow passes Wednesday night/Thursday and should bring some scattered showers and storms to the Midwest. Unfortunately for my area. the amounts look light. Here's what the EURO has for rain totals.
The passage of this disturbance reinforces the comfortable air mass for the coming weekend and much of next week. The 10 day temperature departure August 8-18th looks like this.
The EURO operational run has this for 10 day highs and lows in Cedar Rapids. Can't beat it!
Beyond this period the upper air pattern does show signs of backing away from the current NW flow aloft. By day 15 the EPS ensemble looks like this. A noticeable difference from what I showed you above!
The significance is a warmer pattern for the last 10 days of August. Here's the 10 day temperature departure for August 23-September 2nd.
Whether the warmth will hit and hold remains to be seen. The CFSv2 which has been doing well recently thinks not. It shows this for September temperatures.
September precipitation is a bit more vague. Much of the Midwest appears to be below normal outside of a narrow band of near normal amounts from Wisconsin back into central Iowa and NW Missouri. I like the drier look for most areas.
No matter what, Wednesday promises to be another fine day with near to slightly above normal temperatures and partly sunny skies. Here in Cedar Rapids this will be 13 out of 14 days with no measurable rain. Steady as she goes. Roll weather...TS
