3 OUT OF 5 AIN'T BAD...

August 16, 2017

We've talked a lot lately about how rain (too much and too little) has impacted the central Midwest. Even though some rain has fallen the past 5 days, many of my southern counties continue with significant yearly rainfall deficits.

Going forward a system with widespread rainfall potential will cross the region over the next 24 hours. I've looked at numerous models and there is a tendency for most to indicate some beneficial amounts. 

 

That said, rain and especially convection is known for being spotty and banded, especially this time of year. Aside from that, outflow boundaries and debris clouds can displace the heavier totals south. For that reason, I can't say everybody will get that soaking rain they need but I am pretty confident that many of you will get a nice rain. 

 

Here's some rainfall forecasts that lead to my optimism. First the GFS

Now, a regional perspective.

Here's the EURO with the same 2 perspectives.

Here's the hi-res 3k NAM

The lower resolution NAM has this.

 Finally, the Weather Prediction Center put out this forecast.

Again, most of my northern zones are shown fairing well with .50 to 1". However, it's the south that has the least model consistency, lowest totals, and greatest chance to come up short on amounts.

 

As is always the case time will tell with respect to what happens. However, as it stands now 3 out of 5 models are looking good, and that's not bad! Roll weather...TS  

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails