THE AUGUST WITHOUT A SUMMER...

August 27, 2017

Saturday was another cool August day around much of the central Midwest. Here in my local area temperatures at 5:41pm were in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A solid 5-10 degrees below normal.

It was even worse in NC and NW Wisconsin where a few places were buried in the mid 50s!

The cool readings have been griping the Midwest the entire month. Here's what the August temperature departures look like through August 25th.

Based on what I'm seeing on the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and the mid range models, the temperature pattern is likely to remain below average much of the next 2 weeks. By following the dotted green lines below you can see the EURO forecasts the MJO to stay mainly in phase 3 through September 9th...a phase that correlates to cool readings across the central and western Midwest during September.

The EURO ensembles are in line showing these temperature departures.

 

Days 0-5

Days 5-10

Days 10-15

The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook.

 

The northwest flow aloft is not only cool but dry with limited moisture and dynamics over the Midwest.

 

There are some signs the second half of September may be warmer but we'll cross that bridge in later forecasts. Meantime, the beat goes on for what will be remembered by some as the August without much of a summer. Roll weather...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails