© 2019 Terry Swails

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...

September 7, 2017

As we wait to see what happens with Irma, the weather remains cool, calm, and collected around the Midwest. Wednesday morning the low in Cedar Rapids hit 41 missing the record by just 2 degrees.

You can see how widespread the 40s were around the Midwest.

 

This continues the trend of below normal temperatures that's dominated the region since late July. Here's the August departures.

And here's where we are in September so far. Not much change a week into the month.

Personally, I'm expecting a pattern change later this month that should allow some late season warmth to return to the Midwest. Of course by late September normal highs are down around 70 which means readings 5-10 above normal will only get you upper 70s to near 80. So what I'm saying is we should bet some pleasant weather but nothing that looks hot.

 

However, before we  cross that bridge there's still some cool weather to go. The U.S. climate model is showing this for temperature departures the next 10 days. 

There's moderation in the 10-20 day period which ends September 26th.

Finally, the day 20-30 period ending October 6th shows the warmer weather I'm looking for.

Hopefully, at some point in time the pattern will turn wetter but I'm not very optimistic about that, especially the next 7-10 days. Here's what the GFS shows for rainfall out 8 days. Zip, nada, none for my area.

I'm still watching with great interest the track of Irma. All day Wednesday the storms winds held at 185 mph. That's an all-time record for a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin to remain at that intensity. The most interesting trend I've noted today is the eastward shift in the track by the U.S. models. It depicts a scenario where the storm stays just east of Florida. That's great for Florida but not so good for the Carolina's where a landfall seems probable.

The EURO on the other hand nails Miami with a worst case track. I've said it many times before, if my life was on the line I live or die with the EURO. Here is the ugly scenario it presents.

We'll know a bunch more later Thursday/Thursday  night. Until then, roll weather...TS

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