SHE'S STIRRING, THE WITCH OF NOVEMBER WAKES EARLY...

Some years take longer than others, but it happens without fail. The Calendar flips to October and the weather charts begin to look different. For the first time in months big polar highs start driving cold air through the prairies of Canada. The tops of the Rockies are dusted with snow and the ducks and geese race for a place where life is, shall we say...more agreeable.

It's winter they flee and it's winter I see. It's back on the charts and in steady increments it will stake claim on the Midwest. The push is on, the clock is ticking.

I've noticed it happens quickly. The dominoes are in place and once the first one tumbles, the others are not far behind. The first to go is the frost domino. The killing freeze is a sure sign that it's time to get serious. The Indian Summer that follows is a window of warmth, or in my case a window of opportunity to finish preparations for the long nights ahead. Time to fatten up the nest.

It's only a matter of time before the flurry domino follows suit. It falls when the first blue norther comes screeching across the Plains on slate grey skies and icy winds. In furious bursts, the first flurries scurry to the ground. The damage is minimal but the sign is unmistakable, there's more where that came from..most years a lot more.

Last but not least, the snowstorm domino topples when the first accumulating snow transforms the world to a wonderland of white. The world wakes to the sounds of scraping shovels and growling snowplows. On a happier note, the laughter of red cheeked children and fresh snowmen bring memories of younger days. Its winter now. The calendar once again speaks truth. T. Swails

Following that little build up, you know I had something on my mind. And based on recent trends I think we might be setting up for the first frost of the season somewhere in the period October 8-12th. If you were paying attention above that's the first domino on the road to winter.

As you can see on the graphic above the average date of the first 32 degree low is usually around October 5th-15th around much of my area. (Were right on schedule). Its already happened up north in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here's the earliest and latest 32 degree lows for locations around my immediate area.

Here's the evidence as to why I think the threat is real. Both the GFS and EURO are digging a cold deep trough into the central U.S. around Oct 10-11th. The EURO looks like this.

The GFS like this.

Even the CFSv2 sees the cold with temperature departures like this October 9-14th.

Check out these lows the GFS operational has October 12th. That be cold!

There will likely be some flurries or snow showers in the upper Midwest. (The second domino for those up north). Here's the GFS snowfall forecast through the 15th

All the more reason why you should enjoy the mild weather of the next 7 days. The witch of November will be out scouting early this year. She moves fast when she wants to. Roll weather...TS