After a couple of miserable days featuring highs in the 50s, it's easy to get the feeling that we've turned the corner on the road to winter. However, if the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is on the mark, there's nothing to worry about yet.
For days the EURO has been consistently showing the MJO cycling through phases 5 and 6 the next 10-12 days. You can see in the phase correlation diagram how both 5 and 6 are associated with warmer than normal temperatures during the month of October. Especially when the flow is highly amplified as the EURO depicts. (You can follow the MJO forecast progression by observing the dotted green lines. The further away from the center they are the more amplified and impactful the pattern is likely to be).
Here's phase 5 temperatures in October.
Now phase 6 temperatures in October. Things get really toasty here.
It's pretty straight forward to see that the EURO's MJO forecast is presenting a mild period October 10-24th, and maybe the rest of the month.
The EURO ensembles are in good agreement showing the overall warmth in the pattern. Here's the temperature departures for days 0-5.
Finally, days 10-15.
Keep in mind there will be a couple below normal days in the mix (for example this Sunday) but overall temperatures should consistently be above normal by 2-10 degrees through the period.
One thing to keep an eye on in the Pacific is a typhoon which is expected to recurve east of Japan. The typhoon rule in fall suggests a downstream trough in the 10-15 day period somewhere in the central or eastern United States.
The EURO is hinting at the possibility October 26th showing a deep trough digging into the Ohio Valley.
That would bring a noticeable change to colder weather. It remains to be seen if this happens and if so, whether the cold will hit and hold. Definitely something to watch later in October.
Meantime, another storm is getting set to roll across the Midwest this weekend. Along with heavy rain there is also the potential for some severe weather in parts of my area and the central Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has this area highlighted for a severe weather threat Saturday.
The GFS is showing a potentially strong set-up Saturday afternoon with a deepening surface low tracking across Iowa. Dew points are high and shear looks strong so it's a situation worth watching the next couple of days.
Heavy rain is also a threat. The GFS has this for rain totals Friday night through Saturday night.
All in all, an active pattern remains in place and things will get cooking again come Friday night. Roll weather...TS