© 2019 Terry Swails

YES, SNOWFLAKES ON THE LONG RANGE CHARTS...

October 19, 2017

Just a little update on something I posted about yesterday known as the typhoon rule. The gist of the subject was that when a Pacific typhoon passes east of Japan into the Bering Sea, a teleconnection is established that will bring cold air into the central and eastern U.S. in the 6-10 day period.

 

The typhoon that will initiate such a change is forecast to be just SE of Japan Monday. At some point it should become a super typhoon with winds of 145 mph.

From there it heads northeast into the Bering Sea by Wednesday night. At that point the change is on and the jet is buckling.

Notice the difference at 500mb today.

And what the GFS shows next Wednesday.

This might too fast and overdone but if the GFS comes close to verifying, this will be an eye opening pop of cold air. The GFS which is the coldest of the models (I'm leery of buying into it 100%) shows highs that look like this next Wednesday.

Here's a larger perspective. Look at all the 30s in Wisconsin.

Even more interesting to me is the temperatures at 850mb (5.000 feet up). Most of Iowa is running -5 to -8. Zero 850 temperatures will get you snow most times in winter. This early -2 to -3 can do it.

So what I'm seeing on the GFS is extremely cold air aloft that will drive clouds and most likely instability showers. It would be very likely (if the GFS is correct...I'm still not confident to go all the way) that snow showers would develop and fall over the upper Midwest, perhaps as far south as Iowa and Illinois. 

 

Look what the 18Z GFS shows for snow accumulations. Some of the lake effect areas of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan are shown with 6-10" totals. Measurable snow goes all the way into northern Illinois. I need to stress, this is the worst case scenario and at this time I doubt snow will be this widespread or heavy. However, snow showers are possible and just seeing the flaky potential gets me fired up.

Before any of this can happen we have a couple more excellent days of weather before a front brings a rain threat to my local area Saturday night. Once again models are drawing enough moisture and forcing to produce generous rains that could amount to an inch in spots.

 

The GFS indicates this for amounts.

 The larger perspective of the Midwest.

 

Short term the bottom line is fine harvest weather will continue for local farmers through the day Saturday. Those corn and bean pickers will be working overtime. Roll weather...TS

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