THE ARCTIC HOUNDS ARE HOWLING EARLY....
The latest run of the European weeklies are in and I'm less than thrilled. Compared to previous runs this one has similar temperature trends but is drier than I would like the next 6 weeks over much of the Midwest.
The big take away at jet stream levels is the west to northwest flow that dominates at 500mb. That's bothersome to me because it implies limited moisture and an overall lack of storminess in the pattern. Here's the 500mb flow days 7-14 ending November 23. Zonal, mild and dry.
The 500mb flow days 18-25 ending December 4th. There's a turn to more of a northwest flow over the Midwest. A colder look but still quite dry. Usually nothing more than clippers in this set-up.
Finally the 500mb flow days 39-46 ending Christmas. Not much change from the previous 3 weeks other than a bit more trough amplification over the east and more ridging over Alaska. This should be a fairly cold period over the central and east but again, a clipper dominated pattern. In other words it looks dry unless something can dig and amplify within the fast mean flow. Models can't see that type of development at this distance so it's possible.
Taking the weeklies literally, (never a good idea at such a distance) the next 6 weeks should be colder, generally dry. and not overly snowy over my area and the central Midwest. The 46 day snowfall on the control of the EPS weekly looks this way.
The mean is a bit more generous and further south. Still, nothing to write home about. However, lots of lake effect snow!
The mean 46 day temperature outlook ending Christmas day has a chilly look, especially the further north you go in the Midwest. That's consistent with a La Nina driven winter.
The message the weeklies are sending the next 6-10 days is that we'll see a gradual easing of the cold that's produced 14 consecutive days of below normal temperatures. There's even a pretty good chance of highs reaching the 50s for 2-3 days in my area the middle of next week. Here's the 10 day meteogram for Cedar Rapids. A 61 degree day is probably a push but the trend for warmer readings is obvious.
One last thing before I go. At 10:00pm Thursday night the temperature in International Falls, Minnesota is 11 below zero with 4 inches of snow in the ground. It's possible some areas up that way could push 15-20 below by Friday morning.
Make no mistake about it, this air mass is bitter for early November and a testament to the intensity of the cold that's been building up north. The weeklies are hinting that these types of air masses could make there way into the Midwest starting late November to early December. The Arctic hounds are howling early and the clock is ticking. Roll weather...TS