© 2019 Terry Swails

NEXT 2 WEEKS MILD AND DRY....

November 22, 2017

If the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) is correct, (and I suspect it's on the right track), it's tipping us off that December is going to start mild around the Midwest. As you will see below by following the dotted green line, the EURO is forecasting an MJO track that cycles it through the holy grail of warm phases the next 2 weeks. By the beginning of the month it's in phase 4. To the right you can see that correlates strongly to well above normal temperatures over much of the nation.

From there it slips through phase 5 and into 6 around December 5th. Notice the temperature correlations remain very warm.

Phase 5:

Phase 6: 

The operational run of the EURO was in sync with its MJO forecast showing some pretty mild temperatures in the coming 10 days. Here's some meteograms showing 10 day temperatures and precipitation. The big take away in all of them is that mild dry weather will be the rule. Take a look. Here in Cedar Rapids it's showing two 60 degree highs. That 20 degrees above normal.

Cedar Rapids:

Chicago:

Minneapolis: 

St. Louis: 

Omaha: 

The CFSv2 climate model is also in agreement showing temperature departures well above normal in the day 5-15 period...ending December 6th.

The other thing the warm phases of the MJO are known for is dryness over the Midwest.  The EURO certainly sees that showing nothing for 10 day precipitation.

Taking it a step further, the GFS goes out 16 days with its precipitation forecast and it leaves my area high and dry from today through December 7th. My goodness!

What I'm now hoping for is that the MJO will eventually make the round into the colder phases of 7, 8, and 1 by December 10th. That will give a couple weeks to get colder and hopefully snowier before Christmas. I'm not a fan of a brown Christmas and neither is Santa! Roll weather...TS

 

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