HAPPY TURKEY DAY! SIGNS OF WINTER...

Yesterday we looked at how the remainder of November and the beginning of December looked dry and on the mild side. Today, we'll explore why I'm bullish on a change to what I believe will be a more wintry pattern around the 8th-11th of December, Granted, I had expected this closer to Thanksgiving but as the saying goes, better late than never.

To support my point I'm going to turn to the output of the GEFS and and EURO EPS ensembles. In the teleconnections I'm about to show, you can see the forecasts of each model and the temperature analogs they correlate to during the month of December.

First the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)

Both the EPS and GEFS have the EPO negative against the base going into December 8th. A negative phase in December correlates to significantly below normal temperatures in December.

Now the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)