YEA, I'M DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS...

November 24, 2017

Thanksgiving is behind us and that means it's time to start thinking about Christmas. One of the things that makes my holiday season special is snow. It's like frosting on the cake for me. A mood setter if you know what I mean. What can I say, Christmas lights just look better in snow.

 

When I was a kid it seemed like there was snow every year but looking at the records, I can see that was far from the case. The part of eastern Iowa I'm from has a less than a 50% chance of Christmas being white. Here's the odds for the Midwest.

Here's the whole nation.

With near record temperatures on the table Friday and above normal temperatures the next 2 weeks, chances for snow are not looking good through the first 7-10 days of December. However, the new EURO EPS weekly ensembles insist that a colder and perhaps snowier pattern is in the works after that. Here's what the model ensembles show for temperature departures leading up to Christmas.

December 7-14:

December 11-17th:

December 14-21:

December 18-25th: 

With colder air anticipated, the model also sees increased opportunities for snow. Here's what the EPS mean shows for snow totals between now and Christmas Eve.

The control shows this for the same period.

While neither solution shows a lot of snow for my local area, (best case scenario 4-8", worse case 2-5") it certainly would be enough to make it white and bright. Here's hoping the model has the right idea! Roll weather and enjoy Friday's near record warmth...TS

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails