For days the various teleconnections that I employ have all strongly indicated a dramatic pattern change next week that would bring sharply colder temperatures an improved chances for at least some snow around the Midwest. Today the EURO ensemble seasonal MJO is trying to seal the deal as it heads for the holy grail of cold in December...phases 7, 8, and 1.
If you follow the dotted green line below (the MJO forecast) you can see a fast progression through the warm phases of 5 and 6 the next few days before a slowing as it tours 7, 8, and probably 1 by the end of December. Note the temperature and precipitation analogs associated with 7 and 8. Cold with near normal precip. for my local area. Ding! That is inspiring.
Aside from the frigid look of the MJO, the other teleconnections are all in the cold camp which leads to high confidence that from December 6th on the month looks mighty fresh and frisky. THe EURO ensembles look like this for some of these key drivers. Below each you can see the analogs to December temperatures.
THE negative AO (Arctic Oscillation):
THE negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation):
The negative WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation):
The neutral NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation):
The Positive PNA (Pacific North American Oscillation):
Needless to say the deck is stacked for what should be a cold December. Typically, if you build the cold the snow will come. That is certainly my hope. Here's what the 51 members of the GEFS ensembles are showing for snow through December 18th.
Now the EURO EPS ensembles for the same period.
It's a clipper dominated pattern that's short on moisture and lean on snow. However, a little amplification and the right track and it wouldn't take much to squeeze out a couple inches within the 5-15 day period. I like the hand far better than the one I've been playing the past 3 weeks and I'm anxious to get the cards on the table. A little white gold for the holidays would suit me just fine! Roll weather...TS