© 2019 Terry Swails

A MILD CHRISTMAS? I SEE SIGNS....

December 8, 2017

The 12z run of the operational EURO was a head spinner for me today. For the past 10 days the model has been teleconnecting to cold phases and consistently showing that in its daily output. Needless to say I was not prepared for what it tossed at me today. Talk about a flip flop!

 

Instead of a negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) it showed a positive turn.

In December that correlates to this temperature analog.

The NAO came in positive.

The December analog.

The EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) from negative to positive.

The December analog.

The WPO (western Pacific Oscillation) from negative to positive.

The December analog. 

If that wasn't bad enough, the EURO MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) which was moving from warm phases to the cold phase of 7 did a u-turn just before entering it. For about a week it makes a loop before resuming its journey towards 7 and 8 just before Christmas. Below you can see how mild the MJO temperature analog is for phase 6 in December.

It appears this reversal is tied to slow moving convection in the Pacific NW of Australia. Once this departs to the east and high pressure can be restored to Australia the SOI or Southern Oscillation index should fall and head into negative territory. That would signal the move into the colder MJO phases. If not, we've got big problems snow lovers. As of today the SOI index is in positive territory indicating the change has yet to occur.

If you are still with me congratulations, this is some heavy meteorological mumbo jumbo. So what does it all mean? That's a dang good question. The sensible answer would mean a milder look to our weather going into Christmas. Not nearly as warm as it has been but some days well above normal.

 

However, at this point this is a new trend and it remains to be seen if both the EURO and the GFS get into and stay in this camp in coming days. Even if they do, the EURO does show the MJO moving into the cold phases near or after Christmas and theoretically that should bring temperatures down for an extended period of time. The question is when? Christmas could end up mild. Clear cut answers are just not there and I'm not sold on any solution tonight.

 

One thing to watch short term is a clipper that streaks across Wisconsin Friday night. It will generate some light snow or flurries. However, the track is such that accumulations (1-2") should be found mainly in Wisconsin and extreme NE Illinois. I like what the NAM is showing below.

The backside of the clipper will also bring a cold day Saturday with gusty winds and highs in the 20s. 

By Sunday, winds return to the south and warm advection will give temperatures a healthy boost. The EURO has highs into the 40s into the southern half of my area.

Well, that's all I have for now. I must say I'm disheartened by today's developments mid and long-range. For sure, this is a challenging pattern and both the models and the people who interpret them have their hands full. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

 

P.S. It snowed in San Antonio, Texas Thursday evening. Remember the Alamo! 

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