TWO WEEKS TO GO, HO HO HO....
Two weeks from today is the big day. Santa will have made the rounds by now and should be soaking his feet and sipping hot chocolate, another world journey behind him. So, where do we stand weatherwise between now and then? Lets take a look.
This period looks pretty quiet, temperatures will be near to slightly below normal. The EURO EPS departures through the 15th
The day 5-10 period continues to look quiet and generally dry. However, the 500mb pattern is more westerly and temperatures are warmer. There could be a couple of near 50 degree days in the mix. We are out to December 20th.
DAYS 10-15: UP TO CHRISTMAS:
After the 20th, things get more far more interesting, especially in terms of temperature. There had been some indications last week that the warmth of the 5-10 day period might hold until Christmas but that's not the case anymore. Check out the day 10-15 departures.
A big shot of cold seems to be coming somewhere around December 21-24th. Note the departures on the 23rd!
Based on what I am seeing on the latest EURO MJO forecasts this cold looks to be the real deal. It's at this time when the MJO is going hard into the cold phases of 7 and 8! I see the SOI index went negative today and that is a strong cold signal as well when tied to the MJO.
As for snow, I don't see much threat for any of that until the cold really digs in around the 21st. Then, at the very least we should be open to snow showers or flurries...hopefully more! The EURO EPS mean shows this for snow through Christmas. This all comes after the 21st and is one of the better runs in quite some time. No guarantee but reason for hope!
Have an excellent day and roll weather...TS