© 2019 Terry Swails

STILL ON BORROWED TIME...

December 20, 2017

Ladies and gentlemen, if you were a forecaster the past couple of weeks your head would be spinning, much like mine. I have seen a whole array of solutions ranging from snow to no snow (more than once!) and bitter cold that shows up one day and is gone the next. Even within individual models, the morning run shows a storm and then flip flops to a dry solution at night. Clearly, this pattern is giving model fits.

 

As you know I've been staunch for some time that snow was not likely to be big issue around my area with the late week system. I'm still on that bandwagon and if anything snow amounts look even lighter today than yesterday. Most totals now appear to be in the dusting to 1" category (Maybe a few 2" amounts near and north of HWY 20). I doubt there will be much at all near or south of I-80.

 

One other issue to monitor is some areas may see a period of light rain which could briefly change to freezing rain or drizzle before transitioning to snow. As of now I don't expect this to be a big issue with the recent warmth warming ground temperatures and amounts being so light. Here's the GFS snowfall forecast through Saturday. Most of this would fall Thursday-Friday morning.

Here's a tighter perspective.

The EURO has this for snowfall totals the same period. 

Here's a tighter view of the EURO.

There's another piece of energy that the EURO sweeps across my area Christmas Eve day that's worth watching. It's a fast mover but it could lay down a band of snow through my area just before the holiday and it might just be the best chance for a white Christmas. It would not take much to get a couple inches in the much colder air that prevails by that time. This will need to be watched but at least for now the EURO is the only model that keys on this development. This is the total snowfall the EURO shows through Christmas including the Thursday system.

The tighter view. 

A very good piece of news today is that at least for the moment, the GFS has backed away from its super frigid solution of yesterday. It is still quite cold but the big 1066 high it showed yesterday has been reduced to 1050mb today. It also holds the center further north so the resulting pressure gradient is not as (tight) meaning less wind. Still blustery but not that 40 mph screamer. That helps with the wind chills. Here's what the latest GFS shows for lows Christmas morning.

Highs are forecast to look like this Christmas afternoon.

The wind chills Christmas morning. Still formidable! 

Considering the amount of cold air coming and the energy within the pattern today's data was about as good as you could hope for considering the potential. We're still on borrowed time. More to come. Roll weather...TS

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