If you go by the numbers, the chances of a white Christmas in the southern half of my area are not very good in any given year. The statistical odds from the NWS prove my point, showing the chances of a white Christmas along and south of I-80 at just 25-40%. The last time this part of my region was snow covered at Christmas was back in the winter of 2013.
So 2017 will be one of those rare years where my southern counties will experience a white Christmas thanks to a fast moving system that clips the region Sunday. In a general sense, this storm is nothing to write home about with meager moisture and virtually no surface reflection. However, soundings indicate good saturation and lift in the dendritic zone which will take advantage of the meager moisture that exists. It's looking like total QPF of .10 to .25" will be squeezed out south of a line from near Dubuque to Cedar Rapids southwest to Des Moines and Omaha. That's a bit further north than in previous runs so I like the idea of 1-2" totals along that line with 2 to perhaps 3" amounts close to I-80. Further south, especially HWY 34 south to the Iowa border, 3-4" amounts look likely with a few spots getting up to 5" where heavier banding occurs. This will extend eastward into central Illinois as the day wears on
Here's a graphic from the NWS in the Quad Cities showing potential totals.
The winter weather advisory as of late Saturday night is out through noon Sunday and covers much of the central Midwest.. This has been expanded about a county north from the initial NWS issuance.
The latest EURO has this for total snow from the event.
Here's a regional perspective of the whole Midwest.
With high temperatures expected to remain in the low to mid 20s throughout the day Sunday, where the snow piles up roads will be snow covered and treacherous. Please drive with caution and and slow it down a bit if you have holiday travel plans. We want you all to enjoy your family and friends and be with us next Christmas! Try and find the beauty in the snow. In my opinion, it's a gift! Roll weather and Merry Christmas....TS