NICE WHILE IT LASTED....

January 4, 2018

After a short but welcome break, temperatures are once again below zero around the central Midwest. The latest round of Arctic air is powered by a a fresh 1038 high building southward out of Manitoba.

This beast, although weaker than the 1050 high we just ushered out will see to it that lows remain below zero through Saturday morning. That will make it 11 out of 12 mornings with sub-zero temperatures. I don't know for sure when the last time that happened but my guess is at least a couple decades. 

 

Here's what temperatures are forecast to look like early Thursday morning. Personally, it would not surprise me if some spots were several degrees colder.

Yesterday I mentioned a change in the pattern late in the weekend that will bring a warm-up. Highs should reach 30 into southern Iowa but the warmth will come with a cost and that's the threat of snow on Sunday. I'm still waiting for models to converge on a solution but as of late Wednesday no such luck. The EURO and GEM are in the snowier camps, the U.S. models, including the GFS and NAM not so much...in fact very little with even some rain in parts of the south.

 

To show you the range in solutions here's the snowfall forecasts from the EURO and GEM on Sunday. First the EURO.

Now the GEM.

The GFS came in Wednesday night with this for snowfall totals. Lean to say the least.

The issue models are struggling with is phasing between energy in the northern and southern branches of the jet. If the energy is bundled (or phased) 1-3 inches of snow are possible in some areas. If not, this will be a dud just like the GFS is showing. Needless to say something has to give and I would not put much stock in any forecast at this point in the game. 

 

For those of you who have had your share of cold, here's some good news long term. The EURO is showing a January thaw around the middle of the month with a high of 41 degrees. Fingers crossed!

I'm headed to Chicago today with Carolyn and Eden. Our family Christmas gift was tickets to Hamilton. My daughter is obsessed with the show and knows the words to every song. I kid you not. It would take me a lifetime to do that. Anyway, she is very excited and we are looking forward to the event. I need a little culture if you know what I mean. Will try to stay updated with the posts. Until next time, roll weather...TS 

 

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails