© 2019 Terry Swails

WINTER AIN'T OVER BY A LONG SHOT...

January 24, 2018

The coming 10 days on the EURO look like this in Cedar Rapids and the surrounding area. Notice 2 days in the 50s between now and February 1st. Most of the 10 day period highs are above freezing.

Considering the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is currently touring the warm phases of 5 and 6 this makes perfect sense.

Additionally, the EPO which has been a real temperature driver this winter is shown positive during this time frame.

A positive EPO in January is a strong signal for warmth. The MJO and EPO are in sync here.

 

 

Another common denominator related to the MJO is the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). When the SOI is positive, especially greater than 10, chances are the weather is (or is on the verge of being) mild in the Midwest. Today the index was measured at 25.68. The index measures pressures in the area around Australia. For now they are low creating high SOI values.

Just for comparison sake, remember back when we had the bitter cold in late December into the first half of January? I've taken the 30 day average SOI starting December 25th and check marked each day with a sub-zero low. Out of the 22 days with negative SOI's, 14 had lows below zero. That's no accident.

I'm going somewhere with this and that's the fact the MJO is headed for colder phases (see above). As pressures rise in the next 10 days and convection diminishes west of Australia, the SOI will begin a significant fall and the stage is set for colder weather. 

 

This trend is also depicted in the EURO weeklies which show the EPO turning sharply negative in the period February 1st through the 25th. During the stretch I showed above with all the sub-zero cold, the EPO was negative well below the base state. Again, that's a very strong teleconnection for Midwest cold.

Here's the temperature departure for negative EPO's in February.

 

The EURO EPS is already leading the charge to cold with this 500mb flow February 5th.

Look at the temperature departures at 5,000 feet with this pattern. Ouch!

By the way, the EURO EPS weeklies have the cold dominating into March. That increases the chances for snow around the Midwest and much of the northern half of the country. The 46 day EPS mean has this for total snowfall ending March. I would not complain about that in a year that's only produced 10" of the white gold here in Cedar Rapids.

 Enjoy the late week arm-up, winter ain't over by a long shot! Roll weather...TS

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