© 2019 Terry Swails

EXTREMES, WE'RE NOT DONE WITH THEM YET...

January 26, 2018

A stiff southerly wind, dry air, and a stronger late January sun will combine to produce another big warm-up Friday afternoon. Highs will reach the 50s well into Iowa and northern Illinois. I'm thinking about 55 in Cedar Rapids which is nearly 80 degrees warmer than the 24 below back on January 1st. Take into account the wind chill of 49 below that morning and it will feel 104 degrees warmer. Gotta love the Midwest!

On the topic of extreme weather. it sure looks to me like the pendulum is getting set to swing the other way. It all starts with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) getting into the colder phases of 7, 8, and 1 towards the the 2nd week of February. Follow the dotted green line.

The evidence for cold increases when you stack the various teleconnections forecast by Thursday's EURO weeklies. Below you can see 4 predicted teleconnections and the temperature departures associated with each in February. One I put a lot of stock in is the EPO. It's shown negative almost the entire month of February.

 

The EPO:

 

The WPO:

The AO:

 

The PNA:

All of these teleconnections look especially cold around February 10th. That potential is certainly showing up in the EURO's EPS control. Here's what it has for temperature anomalies going into February 9th.

You can see the big buckle that should force the cold air into the Midwest.

The 18Z operational GFS was really bullish on bitter cold about the same time. Here's what its 500mb flow looks like February 10th.

It's temperature departure at 5,000 ft. is off the grids. The cold exceeds the scale to the right!

The 850 temperatures are about as wicked as I have ever seen. Down to 40 below in NW Minnesota.

Actual lows of 40 below are are shown from southern Canada into NW Minnesota.

 Wind chills are brutal approaching 60 below in NE North Dakota. It doesn't get much colder than that.

I sincerely hope this brand of cold disappears in coming runs. Something serious to keep an eye on. Meantime, clebrate today as were on the peak of the roller coaster. Enjoy the ride and as always, roll weather...  

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