© 2019 Terry Swails

THE EURO SPANKS THE GFS AGAIN....

February 9, 2018

Many many times I have lauded the EURO for its skill in forecasting snow, especially within 3 days. Thursday's snow event is a perfect example of why you live and die with the output of the EURO. Take a look what it showed for snowfall totals. It paints the warning criteria snows near and north of HWY 20. Little if anything south of I-80.

On the other hand, the U. S. model the GFS had this for snow amounts. The heaviest totals are down around I-80 where the EURO had virtually nothing.

Here's the radar at 10:18 PM. Guess who won this war? Can you say EURO!

Additionally, the winter storm warnings that were issued by the appropriate sources were geared to the GFS solution, or at least it looks that way to me. I'm all in favor of advance warning but you need to cut bait when it's obvious the puzzle is not coming together. The warnings which were the basis for a lot of cancellations in my area we're still out at 10:30 PM. Big snow numbers were still floating around. 

It was apparent to me by late day revisions were necessary in some of my southern counties. I was telling my audience in my evening weathercasts the warnings would be downgraded (or should be) from HWY 30 south since late afternoon. Why did I say that, radar trends, the EURO's snowfall forecast from the previous day, the afternoon run of the NAM which looked like this. Very similar.  

All I'm saying is that parts of the process of alerting and informing the public could have been improved with a bit more urgency. We can do better.

 

Back to the point I began with, the EURO's physics are better than our best U.S. model. If somebody else can make such a great product why can't we? Flat out, if the EURO shows a trend I always pay close attention. If I'm ever in doubt, especially when the event is within 48 hours, I side with the EURO unless something glaring stands out. You should too.

 

That said, the EURO is forecasting more snow this weekend. This time it will fall further south. Here's its latest snowfall forecast. Much of what's shown in the north near HWY 20 and north has already fallen. Much of what's shown near or south of HWY 30 expected is expected this weekend. You can bet I'm paying attention.

That's it after a long day. Bring on Friday. Roll weather...TS 

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