WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

February 13, 2018

Holy cow, it snowed last week...and it did it frequently and substantially. In Cedar Rapids we had measurable snow 9 consecutive days, an all-time record. That is hard to do!

Here's some of the 9 day snowfall totals that were established in cities around my local area. Some places pushing 18 inches, amounts of 10-14" were common.

Below you can see the 7 day snow totals from February 5th to the 11th.

A few areas had 7 times more snow than they normally would have seen in that week long period. The mean departures were greatest from near the Quad Cities on to Chicago.

The yearly total has now reached 22.1in Cedar Rapids....above normal by 1.4". It's been a long time since I've been able to say that the middle of February. 

Here's a look at Midwest snowfall for the season as a whole. Chicago which got off to a very slow start has now had more than 30 inches in parts of the city.

Snow depths Monday morning.

The question on everyone's mind is are we done, where do we go from here? Well. at least for now the next few days look warmer and relatively quiet. Beyond that, it's interesting  to note that the mean storm track continues to run through the central United States. You can see that by observing the 8-14 temperature outlook. Warmth in the east, cold in the west. The fight will be on over the central U.S. where the baroclinic (thermal) boundary sets up. In general, temperatures look seasonal here...perhaps a bit above the norm.

 

The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that too with significantly higher than normal odds of above normal precipitation from the Great Lakes back into my part of the central Midwest.

One of the biggest challenges with coming systems will involve  determining precipitation type. You can clearly see the sharp range in temperatures on the 6-10 day outlook (above) that exists across my region. Where this strong boundary sets up will determine how cold and snowy the next 2 weeks turn out. Frankly it's too close to call at this distance with the next system not due for about a week. By then we'll know how strong the east coast ridge will be and the extent of the warmth it can draw north.

 

Whether it's rain or snow, precipitation looks significant over much of the central U.S. The GEFS ensemble shows this for 16 day precipitation. The whole eastern half of the nation generously wet.

We'll know more in a couple days. Enjoy the mini thaw that's coming. Many of us will experience above freezing temperatures by Wednesday. Roll weather...TS 

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© 2019 Terry Swails