© 2019 Terry Swails

46 DAYS OF FUN AND GAMES...

February 16, 2018

The EURO weeklies are in the house and there were things that met my expectations and others that did not. As I've noted for several days I thought the pattern would turn unsettled for much of the next 6 weeks with above normal precipitation. This run certainly indicates that. Here's the mean 46 day precip. forecast through April 2nd. A large area showing amounts of 4-12"

The control has this. Even more generous over much of southern Iowa and my local area. Spots that really could use the moisture.

Some of the totals in the Ohio Valley and lower Midwest are more than 5" above normal.

It's important to note that these numbers are not a hard forecast. The output is just a guide to show where the trends are greatest for these significant totals over the next 46 days.

 

While this model run gets us into spring we are still in the snow season throughout the period. The means of the weeklies show this for total snowfall out to April 2nd.

The control has this for 46 day snowfall.

I'm not surprised the model is bullish on snow but I am surprised at the amounts, especially the control. That is one of the heaviest runs of the entire winter. This is clearly dependent on the tracks of individual storms which the model can't see at this distance. What it does infer is the trend for significant snow in some part of the central Midwest. We'll see, not sold on that much snow. 

 

One other thing that I did not expect to see was the 46 day mean temperatures. Most of the Midwest is shown with mean temperatures that are above normal through April 2nd.

 The U.S. climate model the CFSv2 has a much colder March outlook.

Based on the where the MJO is going and the blocking that's likely to develop in Canada, I prefer a colder solution than what the weeklies are showing.

 

Regarding the short term, today will be sharply colder as the sting of winter returns to our temperatures. Wind chills much of the morning are likely to hover around zero.

Readings will remain chilly into Saturday before another warm-up commences Sunday and Monday. That's the next period of concern as showers and even thunderstorms return to my area. More on that tomorrow. Roll weather...TS

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