A TASTE OF SPRING...

February 17, 2018

Friday was just a little bump in the road with temperatures back below the freezing mark. Winds have shifted out of the south and warmer air is on the move. Temperatures will be back into the 30s Saturday afternoon -

 There is the chance for light snow as a cold front moves through the Midwest late Saturday morning -

 Little to no accumulation is expected due to how weak the front is and lack of moisture. Even warmer air moves in Sunday as winds pick up out of the south once again. 

The mild air will likely melt away most (if not all) of the remaining snow in my local area. This will be ahead of a more robust storm that will move into the Midwest on Monday. There are some differences on the exact track of this system which will have implications on the temperatures and precipitation types.

The GFS has a more southern track and cooler temperatures in Iowa - with 60s and 70s lighting up parts of Illinois and Missouri.

 The Euro is further north and brings the warmer air further north, too -

 

The NAM has a northern track like the European but is not nearly as warm - 

I think the Euro/NAM solution is on the right track. Overall I think the models are having trouble handling the snowpack. A lot of it has melted away - here's a hi-res satellite image from Friday afternoon. 

 All of the snow has melted away from southwest Iowa. More will melt on Saturday and Sunday and this will likely place the boundary across the state. This could change depending on how much snow does melt across the rest of the Midwest, of course. The Euro/NAM solution will lend itself to spring-like thunderstorms. Here's the CAPE (instability) on the Euro on Monday --

There will then be a transition to a wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday as colder air moves back in. There are still some uncertainties in the exact track of the system, but it will likely bring a taste of spring weather early next week.


RK

 

 

 

 

 

 

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