RAIN, SNOW AND COLD...

March 4, 2018

After a spring-like weekend, winter is making a comeback as a powerful storm approaches the Midwest. 

Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have now been posted across portions of the Midwest in advance of Monday's storm. 

It's interesting to see the gap in the advisories in western Minnesota and into Iowa -- that's where the dry slot will be located and will lead to light precipitation through the day.

Temperatures will remain mild Sunday night into Monday morning. Here's the projected temperature at midnight -

 At that time moisture will begin to move in as the storm strengthens and moves into the Upper Midwest.

 Cooler air will begin to move in through the day and that will change the rain over to freezing rain, sleet and snow. Here's the temperatures Monday afternoon:

 Here's an animation of the storm moving through Monday through Wednesday morning -

 The biggest challenge with this system is going to be the change in precipitation type and accumulation. Snowfall accumulation is going to be highest in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. It gets complicated in Iowa and into Illinois considering how warm the ground will be. Here's the projected snowfall accumulations on the NAM, 3km NAM, GFS and Euro: 

 

 

 

 There has been a trend to bring the colder air further south. Temperatures really cool in the mid levels, but it doesn't quite translate to the surface south of Highway 20. Even with surface temperatures hovering above freezing snow will still be possible, but accumulation will take some time or not happen at all. Especially considering there will be around a half an inch of rain that has fallen prior to the change to snow. 

 

The greater potential for snowfall accumulation will be along and north of Highway 20. Some grassy/elevated surfaces may see minor accumulations further south. If it does get colder at the surface then some light accumulation of wet, slushy snow will be possible. 

 

Cold air moves in thereafter for the middle of the week and temperatures will be below normal for the first time in over two weeks. Here are the high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday -

 Winter isn't over yet!

 

RK

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails